Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
